A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
